Thursday, December 14, 2017

Fantasy Goalie Analysis: Dubnyk's injury; Top-25 rankings; goalie news and notes

Minnesota Wild goaltender Devan Dubnyk sustained a lower-body injury against the Calgary Flames on Tuesday and is week to week.

Dubnyk, 73rd overall and eighth among starting goaltenders in Yahoo based on standard-category performance, finished among the top 10 fantasy goalies in each of his previous three seasons since joining Minnesota.

Backup Alex Stalock (19 percent owned) relieved Dubnyk against the Flames and got his second straight win, stopping 16 of 17 shots faced. He also started and won at the San Jose Sharks on Sunday, stopping 31 of 34 shots faced. Stalock will start against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday (8 p.m. ET; FS-N, SNO). He is a short-term streaming option for owners of Dubnyk, but should not be prioritized over some stronger outside options.

The best starting goaltender available in most leagues is Antti Raanta (23 percent owned) of the Arizona Coyotes. His strong play lately and the fact that he's in the final year of his contract warrant fantasy attention. If he is not going to sign long-term with the Coyotes, they could end up trading him to a contending team. Even for now, Raanta has bounced back from multiple injury absences and a season-opening four-game winless streak (0-2-1) by going 4-4-1 with a .930 save percentage over his past 10 games.

After Raanta, there are a number of fantasy-relevant backups, namely Aaron Dell (SJS; 31 percent owned), Ryan Miller (ANA; 43 percent) and Kari Lehtonen (DAL; 11 percent). Lehtonen has emerged as an intriguing pickup considering he has played two straight games, winning each and stopping 56 of 59 shots faced. The Dallas Stars play a road back-to-back set against the New Jersey Devils on Friday and Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday, so Lehtonen will likely get another start this week.

If Dell, Miller or Lehtonen is not available, the next-best strategy is to opt for a starter-turned-backup like Tristan Jarry (PIT; 32 percent owned) or Malcolm Subban (VGK; 34 percent). The Pittsburgh Penguins and Vegas Golden Knights are in Stanley Cup Playoff position, but Jarry and Subban are among the most-dropped goalies this week because Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury are back from injuries. That said, each goaltender should still see playing time on occasion and receive strong goal support.

- Pete Jensen, NHL.com



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TRENDING UP

Brian Elliott, PHI: The Philadelphia Flyers have followed their 10-game losing streak by winning four in a row, with Elliott starting each of the games. Elliott (69 percent owned) allowed a combined seven goals in impressive road wins against the Calgary Flames (43 saves), Edmonton Oilers (24 saves) and Vancouver Canucks (36 saves) before making 20 saves in a 4-2 home win against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday. Elliott was named the NHL's Third Star of the Week for the period ending Sunday. He's lowered his GAA to 2.76 and improved his save percentage to .912. Elliott is expected to start against the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday (7 p.m. ET; NBCSP, MSG-B, NHL.TV); it will be his season-high sixth straight start. Backup Michal Neuvirth (7 percent owned) has a leg injury and, even if he returns this week, may not get much playing time; Neuvirth is 2-5-1 with a 2.65 GAA and .915 SV% and has allowed three or more goals in four of five starts, including four or more in three of them.

Kari Lehtonen, DAL: It's somewhat surprising that Lehtonen (11 percent owned) has started four of the past six games for the Dallas Stars, but he has been better than No. 1 Ben Bishop lately. Lehtonen is 3-1-0 and allowed seven goals in those four games, including 32 saves in a 5-2 win against the New York Islanders on Wednesday for his 300th NHL win. His 2.44 GAA and .913 SV% are much-improved compared to his previous three seasons, and he's been playing his way into more starts recently. Bishop has been inconsistent this season; he's 13-9-0 with a 2.75 GAA, SV% and two shutouts, and has allowed at least three goals in five of seven games. With Lehtonen playing as well as he has, coach Ken Hitchcock could easily ride the hot hand, making Lehtonen a valuable streaming option and handcuff for Bishop owners.

Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK: The Vegas Golden Knights goaltender returned Tuesday after missing 25 games because of a concussion. Fleury (77 percent owned) was 3-1-0 with a 2.48 GAA and a .925 SV% in four starts before the injury and looked sharp in his return, making 35 saves in a 3-2 shootout loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday. The 33-year-old should see the majority of the workload for Vegas if he remains healthy. The Golden Knights went 16-8-1 without Fleury, whose return mostly affects backup Malcolm Subban (7-2-0, 2.33 GAA, .924 SV%). Subban (36 percent) was rostered in one-half of Yahoo leagues two days ago but now is the clear No. 2 goalie behind Fleury.

TRENDING DOWN

Tristan Jarry, PIT: The rookie was serviceable in the absence of starter Matt Murray; Jarry (36 percent owned) has started the Penguins' past six games and is 5-2-2 with a 2.49 GAA, .919 SV% and one shutout. But with Murray expected to return Thursday at the Golden Knights (10 p.m. ET; NHLN, SN. SN360, ATTSN-RM, ATTNS-PT, NHL.TV), Jarry's run could be over. Murray has not played since Nov. 27, when he left a game against the Flyers with a lower-body injury, and although he has a high GAA (2.95) and low SV% (.906), he'll start the majority of the games if he remains healthy and benefit from Pittsburgh's high-scoring offense and power play. As a result, Jarry can be safely dropped in most leagues.

John Gibson, ANA: This isn't as much a knock on Gibson as it is praise for backup Ryan Miller, who is 3-0-4 with a 1.73 GAA and .945 SV% in eight games (six starts). Miller, the second-oldest goalie in the League at 37 (Roberto Luongo of the Florida Panthers is 38), appears to be fresher in his new role after starting 50-plus games in each of the past two seasons with the Vancouver Canucks. If Gibson gets injured or struggles at any point, Anaheim likely won't hesitate to give more playing time to Miller, who's available in three-fourths of leagues. Gibson does have nine wins and a .921 SV% but has allowed three or more goals in six of his past eight games.

Connor Hellebuyck, WPG: Prior to allowing one goal on 26 shots in a 5-1 win against the Vancouver Canucks on Monday, the Winnipeg Jets goalie had allowed nine goals in two games and at least three goals in four of five. Hellebuyck has decent peripherals (2.44 GAA, .920 SV%) and is tied for sixth in the NHL with 16 victories, but may not be a must-start option anymore. The Jets have one of the NHL's best offenses, so Hellebuyck can even win games where he allows three-plus goals. With Steve Mason injured and no experienced backup, Hellebuyck isn't in any danger of losing his job. That said, fantasy owners may want to take more of a game-by-game approach when deciding whether to start him.

TOP 25 GOALIE RANKINGS

Standard Yahoo categories include wins, goals-against average, save percentage and shutouts for goaltenders. ... Value has been quantified based on factors including but not limited to past production, team goaltender situations, anticipated start volume, projected goal support (or lack thereof), injury history, age, sleeper, bounce-back or breakout potential, potential regression, contract status and overall upside for this season. Any players with day-to-day injury concerns (DTD) are noted. NEW - INJ. indicates a player who has returned from injury and rejoined the rankings.

1. Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL (SAME)
2. Jonathan Quick, LAK (SAME)
3. Pekka Rinne, NSH (+1)
4. Sergei Bobrovsky, CBJ (-1)
5. Frederik Andersen, TOR (+2)
6. Braden Holtby, WSH (-1)
7. Corey Crawford, CHI (+1)
8. Matt Murray, PIT (NEW - INJ.)
9. Carey Price, MTL (-3)
10. Jake Allen, STL (+1)
11. Tuukka Rask, BOS (+4)
12. Martin Jones, SJS (-3)
13. John Gibson, ANA (-3)
14. Cory Schneider, NJD (-1)
15. Connor Hellebuyck, WPG (-1)
16. Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK (NEW)
17. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR (-1)
18. Ben Bishop, DAL (-1)
19. Mike Smith, CGY (+2)
20. Ryan Miller, ANA (NEW)
21. Jaroslav Halak, NYI (-2)
22. Brian Elliott, PHI (NEW)
23. Aaron Dell, SJS (+2)
24. Kari Lehtonen, DAL (NEW)
25. Antti Raanta, ARI (NEW)
Dropped out: Tristan Jarry, PIT; Semyon Varlamov, COL; Malcolm Subban, VGK; James Reimer, FLA; Jacob Markstrom, VAN

Key injuries: Cam Talbot, EDM; Devan Dubnyk, MIN (dropped out); Roberto Luongo, FLA; Oscar Dansk, VGK; Michal Neuvirth, PHI

- David Satriano, NHL.com


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News and Notes from Rotoworld.com:

• Andrei Vasilevskiy will get the start for Tampa Bay on Thursday. Vasilevskiy is going for his fifth straight victory. He has a 20-4-1 record, 2.15 GAA, and .933 save percentage in 25 games in 2017-18.

• Laurent Brossoit will be Edmonton's starter on Thursday. It will be Brossoit's seventh straight start as Cam Talbot continues to recover. Brossoit has a 3-6-1 record, 3.15 GAA, and .891 save percentage in 12 games this season.

• Frederik Andersen will play between the pipes Thursday night. Andersen has had to face at least 36 shots in each of his last three starts, so we'll see if the Maple Leafs give him a little less work tonight. He's 17-9-1 with a 2.69 GAA and .922 save percentage in 27 contests this season.

• Antti Raanta will get the nod for Arizona on Thursday. Raanta turned aside 33 of 34 shots on Saturday, but the Coyotes still lost that contest. He has a 4-6-2 record, 2.68 GAA, and .919 save percentage in 14 contests in 2017-18.

• Aaron Dell is expected to start for San Jose Thursday night. Dell earned a 25-save shutout on Saturday. He's 5-3-1 with a 1.72 GAA and .939 save percentage in 11 contests this season.